State of luxury: US and China outlook

The United States and China account for the largest and fastest-growing luxury markets. A closer look at client expectations across four dimensions reveals how players can reignite growth. As the luxury market emerges from a period of slower growth, consumers in the United States and China will play an outsized role in determining which brands emerge as leaders. These two countries represent the industry’s most significant concentration of luxury demand: The United States remains the world’s largest luxury market by sales, while China is expected to be among its fastest-growing through 2030. Overall, the global luxury market is projected to reach $700 billion by the end of the decade, growing 4 to 6 percent annually.

While the specific behaviors vary by market, four dimensions are changing how consumers engage with luxury. In both the United States and China, emotional connection is overtaking status as a driver of desire. Experiences increasingly compete with products for discretionary spending. Exclusivity is shifting from scarcity to insider recognition. And discovery is moving beyond boutiques and brand-owned channels into AI platforms, resale marketplaces, and peer networks.

Drawing on a survey of more than 2,000 luxury clients in the United States and China, and extensive interviews with clients across both markets, this year’s State of Luxury report examines client expectations across four dimensions—desirability, exclusivity, moments, and discovery—and what brands must do to remain relevant in a more fragmented luxury landscape.